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The coming Urban Crisis:

If Terror Succeeds

What kind of America will unfold if terrorist acts continue unabated here and abroad?  Media reporting and government warnings indicate that terrorist use of explosives and biological weapons are a 100% inevitability now and for some time to come.  In response to this continued threat what changes might we expect in our lives: how will the citizens of this country live, work, play, travel, shop and worship in the troubled times to come?  A new generation will live in fear.  As a result, a new economy and all aspects of human life, including architecture, must rise to meet the challenge of this new world consciousness.  How will we relate to each other, to community, to cities – and what will be built in response?

 Assuming that terrorist organizations will target the largest aggregations of people per incident, it follows that strategic locations, symbolic buildings, important landmarks, all places of congregation and certain building types will be deemed “high risk.”  And if all these areas (see below) are psychologically “off limits,” where will Americans go?   

Each of the above, and this is not a complete listing by any stretch, indicates a potential target.   If chemical or biological weapons are ‘weaponized’ on a large scale, their release in urban centers will be devastating.  In fact, terrorists are releasing airborne pathogens in air conditioning systems in targeted buildings now.  Immediate contamination is possible anywhere forced air circulation can distribute biological or chemical agents.  Because of these threats it is entirely conceivable that we will see increased numbers of people moving away from high profile publicly occupied buildings—potentially all public buildings -- that circulate air to a large number of occupants.  Office workers with their families, business owners, shopkeepers, etc. can be expected to migrate to sparsely populated areas, hop-scotching over existing infrastructure in order to secure a measure of safety.

 Reports indicate that workers in dense cities and towns -- and especially in high-rise buildings of all kinds -- are nervous, unable to perform normal tasks, have difficulty concentrating and are exhibiting many of the symptoms of anxiety disorder and post traumatic stress disorder.  “Ground Zero” is now “Anyplace, U.S.A.”.  An unfamiliar level of distrust and xenophobia is setting in.  This manifestation of fear is evident as medical leaves, vacation requests, and the increased request for job transfers to other low-profile offices in corporations.   In the weeks that have followed the September 11th attacks, lease agreements in high-rise buildings in New York, Chicago, LA, and other high-profile metro areas are being renegotiated or terminated for immediate relocation by companies, not only out of fear for their own safety, but for reasons of pure economics—many companies on the “high floors” are finding that their clients choose not to visit to do business anymore.

 Unprecedented fear for personal safety – on this country’s soil -- is gripping the national consciousness.  What avenues will Americans take to feel and be as safe as possible?  If a protracted series of terrorist acts continues to invade this country’ physical and psychological well being, this scenario of flight may not be just a subject for film and fiction. 

While the concentration of housing and commerce once made perfect sense in a free world, defensive measures preclude the common notion of city or community.  We cannot even look to history to see how to build our fortresses.   Models of Roman, medieval, Renaissance and 18th century towns and cities are worthless.  Even the ancient walled city to the Europe of Hausmann offers little defense against attacks on medium to large concentrations of people.  In fact, if terrorist acts continue to target large metropolitan centers, the modern city, as we know it, may well be in its twilight, it’s twinkling lights symbolizing freedom and power forever extinguished.   The feasibility of high-rise construction and density factors in urban cores, the relative advantages of city life and other arguments for urbanity may become moot in the face of relentless terrorist acts employing weapons of mass destruction.

 What would follow?  Could it be an exodus to meta-suburban and rural areas?  This flight to safety has already begun by those affected directly or peripherally by the 9/11 attack on the WTC and in Washington DC.  Current reports indicate that many New Yorkers and citizens of Chicago, Atlanta, Houston, and other metro areas have already left jobs and home, are making plans to relocate for business and job opportunities in less congested (targeted) areas and are even giving up the workplace entirely for early retirement.  Corporations, if deemed high profile, are pre- anticipating reprisals, and in order to retain fearful personnel, are evaluating plans to abandon ‘name’ and high visibility office buildings in favor of low-rise, less assuming structures that are out on the urban fringes. Who is not to say that the next step may be to form corporate communes in rural areas under the ever- watchful eye of private security forces.

 The erosion of occupancy in high-rise condos and similar multi-family complexes in tandem to the abandonment of urban commercial cores will result in the death of the modern city as we now know it.  Retail complexes, professional services, restaurants, and consumer-oriented businesses will not have a consumer base and will likewise disappear.  Taxation on a limited base will render cities unworkable.  Public services will cease.  Unfortunately, the poor, the weak, the aged and the hospitalized will have no resources to join the exodus.  Government assistance would be perfunctory.

 Like the effect of a drop of black oil in the center of a clear pool of water, inhabitants and workers of inner cities, fearing congestion of any type, will flee beyond the immediate suburbs, staking out rural dwellings and remote office buildings.  The modern city left behind may well resemble the gloomy, dirty, and squatter-type settings imagined in movies such as Bladerunner or Escape from New York.  If we succumb, it will be a total threat to humanity and civilization as we know it, and the victory that terrorists seek.

 

 If thousands upon thousands flee the urban core, our existing suburban model, which consisting of spread-out housing subdivisions and strip commercial development– reviled and criticized for years by sociologists, psychiatrists, and planners alike – could once again become the best living and working arrangement we can create to combat the effects of terrorist attack.  Decentralization in all aspects of business, government, and housing may be the best defense against the use of weapons of mass destruction.   

This country has the economic capability and available land area to accommodate displaced city dwellers on a seemingly indefinite basis.  It may be that the current bi-coastal development will cease to develop further, rather growing inland, favoring the American heartland in terms of psychological defense.  We may the next ones to follow our President to a strategic bunker in Omaha.  As satellite communities spread like wildfire, regional planners must be prepared to work quickly to offer the best solutions to this national emergency.  Environmental correctness would be curtailed, leaving no choice but to accept a new wave of expansion into green-fields.  More important than munitions in this defensive aspect of the war, we will build new houses, apartments, schools, churches and offices in a decidedly spread out manner never envisioned to even the most ardent proponents of the suburban model. 

 The infrastructure demand will no doubt have a positive effect on the economy.  The construction industry must be poised to act quickly as there will be a huge spike in related construction activity, exceeding even post-war records.  There may even have to be temporary living quarters erected to accommodate those panicked the most.  Security at power plants, water supplies, dams, nuclear facilities and other vital utilities for life will become a priority and garner the highest security measures.  Sensitive chemical development complexes, biological research centers, and defense manufacturing will require policing in central locales.  Railroads will enjoy a resurgence and retail to consumer trucking and delivery demands will increase.

 This super-suburbia will communicate via computers and Internet.  A bright new technology that has recently experienced a stock market meltdown will be summoned to serve a new world with a veracity unimagined at its inception.  Business will be conducted using video links and teleconferencing on top of increased email and other paper communications.  If biological or chemical warfare continues, we may revert to a completely electronic communications and financial transaction system.  A place where paper money and postal mail will be eliminated in favor of advertising, billing, news and periodicals and other communications of daily life and business delivered direct to our internet and wireless system mailboxes.

 Travel within the country and around the world will be curtailed for years.  Automobiles will be employed for nearly all non-business movement.  Public transportation will be entirely vestigial.  Groceries and other goods will be delivered to our doors rather than going out to shop for individual items in order to reduce risk.  We will be staying indoors, specifically in our homes, more and more.  Education may shift from classroom to home computer.  Religious services will be conducted over the Internet and television.  Techniques to bring a mass audience together and interact electronically will be devised. 

 We will be more aware of our built environment – in terms of interior design –than ever before.  The attention to detail, spatial quality, color, texture, lighting and other design factors will become acute.  Architects and interior designers must now anticipate the psychological consequence of families occupying smaller spaces together for longer periods of time.  Plan layouts may revert to more compartmentalization.  Home offices will be equally important as play spaces for children always underfoot and close at hand.  Bedrooms will need to double as havens of privacy and thus may require additional space.  Bonus rooms and recreational rooms will become standard, offering spaces to let out pent-up tensions once vented in the great outdoors.   Preparing meals at home will increase; cleaning rituals as well.  Homes will undoubtedly be built larger to accommodate more demands for different activities.  Cohesion of the nuclear family will improve.

 Telecommuting will be the norm, a consequence of the fear of terrorist reprisals aimed at groups of people in work, recreational, shopping, and communal settings of all kinds.  Buildings of all types, including homes, will need to be designed for defense first and aesthetics second. All structures will be fitted with sensors to check for bio/chemical pollutants in the air and water.  Safe rooms and bomb-shelters will become routine additions to all construction.  Super-insulated structures will be required by code, with existing units retrofitted to protect against lethal airborne pathogens.  Lead shielding in walls and ceilings/ roofing with some type of lead film in windows will be developed to deflect the initial effects of nuclear radiation.  The ratio of glass area to walls will be reduced dramatically. 

 Personal disaster outfits including packs prepared for radiological, chemical, and biological attack may be carried on our person every time we leave our homes.  Everyone will have cell phones and back up communication devices that include connections to national defensive early warning systems.  Communal and central suburban shelters will need to be constructed.  The underground living option must seriously be contemplated for reasons of safety.  And existing ‘gated communities’ will no doubt increase security measures, the model repeated for new housing subdivisions in all price ranges.

 If we take another step towards self-sufficiency we could be dusting off the 70’s research on ecological whole house systems.  Fearing contamination from all sources and potential energy shortages, our houses would have to be self-supporting and independent from power grids and other utilities.  Is this the ultimate goal of the current terrorism?  Is it to scare and intimidate the world back to a simple, basic agrarian society of limited contact with much more time to contemplate eternity…from deep inside the caves we create in order to ensure our survival?  Who lives like that now? --the terrorists themselves.

 Perhaps the camaraderie of shared fear will lead to an expanded measure of human contact, despite this past century’s retrogression of social relationships due to the growth of modern technology and suburban sprawl.  Closeness could be limited to immediate neighbors, well at least the ones we can know and can trust right now.  Slowly, as the threat of terrorism abates, perhaps people will live closer to each other as they did “once upon a time.”  Civilization can only progress on a personal level when one lives in a truly free society.  It could be time for us to climb out of the ‘caves’ we have already constructed; hiding no more, to create a world where everything we design connects us instead of divides us.

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 John Henry AIA is a solo practitioner/ architectural theorist and critic based in Orlando, Florida and Austin, Texas.  He has lived and studied in Europe and Asia Minor for over 18 years and holds a Master of Architecture from Texas A&M University.  This direct exposure to Ancient and Renaissance architecture codified with Modernist theory comprises a unique platform that allows diversity in style and content.  Due to a keen interest in urban planning issues and related topics John Henry’s writing has been featured in many regional and national newspapers and periodicals.  His award-winning luxury residential work in period styles has reached national attention.  For more information and to view project

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